(I didn’t blog on day 11)
Thursday September 9, 2010 – 10:45 a.m. – One more day until we pull the cameras. Different leads on Mugsy are currently being followed by the Mayfield family. Here are some of the leads: a look-alike cat was spotted by two different witnesses but ruled out after it was trapped. Two different animal communicators (at least) have given their input – one said Mugsy is dead and the other said she’s alive and went south across the street and into the forest (and is by a log…). Someone had a dream that Mugsy is eating scraps from behind a business west of the crash site. Someone thinks maybe she headed east towards a set of cabins – or that once the snow starts to fall that she will head that way. The fact is that no one, including myself, know for certain where Mugsy is right now.
This is the reality of search-and-rescue–for lost people and for lost pets. I know, because before I started searching for lost pets (in 1997) I searched for lost people. Not only did I use my bloodhounds to track missing people but I was one of five SAR (search-and-rescue) Team Coordinators who helped oversee SAR operations for lost people for the Santa Cruz County Sheriff’s Office. That’s where I learned the principle of “Search Probability Theory.”
Search Probability Theory is defined as: “The theory that you will have a higher likelihood of recovering a lost person (in our case, a lost cat) if you only focus your resources and energy in searching the areas where the missing person is most likely to be.”
Could Mugsy be eating scraps behind a restaurant 1/2 mile west of the crash site? Yes. Could she be east of the crash site under a cabin? Yes. Could she have crossed the highway and be south of the crash site in that new wooded area? Yes (especially since locals have been moving / searching in the woods and could’ve flushed her a third time). But in my professional opinion, based on the previous behavior of panicked / displaced cats that I’ve observed that were recovered weeks (even months) later and based on how Mugsy has already behaved on this case (twice she’s attempted to hide but was flushed out) I believe it is most probable that she is hiding inside the marsh.
I don’t know where Mugsy is or what will happen to her but like everyone else, I’m praying for her recovery.
Special Note: You’re going to have to wait until Saturday morning for an update. Sorry, but my sister is here from Las Vegas and so far this week we’ve had little time to visit. I’ve dragged her to MPP meetings, MPP dog training, and I’m giving an MPP presentation today. I’m going to drag her up to Snoqualmie Pass on Friday as we pull the cameras, but after that we’re heading over to Bainbridge Island for the evening. I’m hoping it will be for a fish and chip celebration dinner!